Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Kalshi Deutschland Legal) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Position eröffnen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Position eröffnen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Position eröffnen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Position eröffnen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Position eröffnen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots | 98% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots | 86% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 73% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 68% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 66% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots | 66% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 62% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 61% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 50% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 45% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 41% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 41% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 37% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 37% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 36% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 36% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 35% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 35% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 34% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 34% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 34% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 34% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 33% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 32% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 32% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 32% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 30% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 29% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 29% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 28% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 27% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 27% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 27% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 5+ shots | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 12% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 12% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 11% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 6% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 98% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: France vs. Spain - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Spain, scheduled for July 14 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch ist diese Seite ein Plattform-Status-Snapshot, nicht eine Trading-Empfehlung. Wir listen die regulatorischen Anforderungen jeder Plattform — Polymarket (CFTC-Konflikt seit 2022), Kalshi (CFTC-reguliert, US-only), Betfair (UK-lizensiert, geo-Block in DE), Manifold (Spielgeld, keine Regulierung) — und zeigen die Live-Quote nur dort, wo wir saubere Daten haben.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung trennt sich nach regulatorischem Modell. Polymarkets on-chain Pfad ist KYC-frei für lebenslanges Volumen unter $1.500 (Kalshi Deutschland Legal-Schwelle); die Auszahlung erfolgt in USDC innerhalb Minuten. Kalshi und Betfair setzen volle KYC-Verifikation voraus — bei beiden Plattformen sind deutsche Nutzer in der Praxis durch Geo-Block ausgeschlossen.
Häufige Fragen
- Ist Polymarket in Deutschland legal?
- Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert — eine eigentliche Nutzung über die Polymarket-Seite ist nicht möglich. Die rechtliche Lage in DE selbst ist Graubereich: keine explizite Erlaubnis, keine explizite Verbote für Prediction-Markets. Kalshi Deutschland Legal hat einen anderen Geo-Footprint.
- Wie werden Gewinne in DE versteuert?
- Aus deutscher Steuersicht typischerweise als sonstige Einkünfte (§ 22 Nr. 3 EStG) bei Haltedauer unter einem Jahr. Über ein Jahr greift möglicherweise die Spekulationsfrist. Wir können keine Steuerberatung leisten — konsultieren Sie eine Steuerberatung für Ihren Einzelfall.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte Glücksspiel?
- Rechtlich unklar in DE. Einige Auslegungen sehen sie als 'Wetten' (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag relevant), andere als 'Termingeschäft' (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz). Bisher gibt es keine Präzedenz-Urteile spezifisch für on-chain Prediction-Markets.
- Gibt es eine Höchstgrenze für Auszahlungen?
- Keine plattform-seitige Höchstgrenze. Sie können beliebig große Beträge auszahlen, vorausgesetzt KYC ist abgeschlossen. SEPA-Bank-Auszahlungen über €15.000 werden zusätzlich für Anti-Money-Laundering geprüft (gesetzliche Pflicht für alle Plattformen).
- Was passiert wenn die Regulierung sich ändert?
- Bei einer Regulierungsänderung in Ihrer Jurisdiktion (z.B. Verbot von Prediction-Märkten) würde Kalshi Deutschland Legal nicht-mehr-zugängliche Geo-Räume blockieren und Auszahlungen weiterhin abwickeln. Ihre Gelder bleiben jederzeit auszahlbar.
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Jetzt „Prognose: France vs. Spain - Player Props" auf Kalshi Deutschland Legal handeln
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